Балуюсь с видео
2007-10-21
We live as long as we fly
Got the urge to chat and fantasize (at one in the morning).
CDs as a music medium in developed countries have 15 years max left to live on a mass scale. At the end of this period they'll be left as a narrow niche - everything will be recorded from a PC to phones (which by then will all have become multifunctional portable computers). In 20-25 years nobody will even store music on their phone - it'll all be streamed via the infosphere straight to the phone online. Advanced dudes will listen to everything right from a micro-earpiece, which will receive music from the infosphere, recognize voice or other commands (tactile, or from an external wireless remote/phone). Another 20-30 years will go into developing and getting society used to implanting a transmitter directly into the auditory nerve.
As for paper books - the countdown should start from high-quality electronic paper. It will go mainstream in its niche by 2012, which means it will completely oust paper books in 15-25 years from then. The only thing that might briefly slow down this process are the harsh copyright laws in the US and Europe, but not for long - media company bosses will eventually surrender their conservative positions, what other choice do they have.
Traditionalists shouldn't forget that the generation being born right now absolutely will not understand their values : the joy of paper books and hard drives.
The only thing, that could complicate everything ( but won't stop it) - is a global crisis. And crises, as far as I'm aware, can now be born from the following categories (of course, they can spawn each other, but then again they might not)
1)Financial - not the worst option, but the most likely one. If the crisis remains solely financial, it will only stall things for a few years (up to 10), no more. It could arise from the current state of affairs (which is sad, according to economist friends and the internet).
2)Resource-based - research on new energy sources is conducted all the more intensely the fewer old sources remain. So if this crisis happens at all, it will only be an indirect one.
3)Political - a bad and unpredictable option, tied to terrorism, fundamentalism, shifts of power in the geopolitical arena and of regimes within the superpowers (of which there are probably two right now - China and the US, well and Europe in a sense).
This crisis is the most likely to lead to the annihilation of life on the planet via atomic or biological war. On the other hand, it will most likely be quite tolerable (well, so the US becomes even more like the USSR - so what?)
4)An external, poorly predictable threat to humanity - global epidemics, asteroids, the environment in the form of global warming, melting ice, intensifying earthquakes and typhoons, artificial intelligence. This crisis could be terrifying, but it will almost certainly preserve humanity as a species, which is good news.
I really want to see the colonization of the solar system. Right now there are doubts if that's even possible - even with technological growth it demands a massive exertion from civilization. Which in principle could pull it off, if it weren't 95% comprised of broke idiots like Africans, poor clones like Indians and Chinese, or rich fools like Americans and Islamic oilmen.
It could be that a technology for the unlimited reproduction of goods emerges (automated factories and nanorobots). At first this will lead to a severe general crisis on all fronts, sadly. But if we survive it, the cosmosphere and singularity will be very close.
The question about genetics - there's no doubt that the "bioethical" laws adopted by most countries will heavily slow down, but not stop, the creation of GM kids. But here, as I understand it, there are plenty of scientific and technical problems (just like in the paragraph above, though) and this process will take quite a while.
And towards the end - my favorite crap about the singularity. I still doubt that it will happen in the next 50 years. Progress is hindered by the current state of affairs with scientific research and its application. Which is a shame, because I'm unlikely to live any longer than that, even with the looming successes in medicine.
Meaning that someone born in 50 years - will either not be born at all, or will be a barbarian with spears and a bow, or will witness the rebirth of our species into the next stage of evolution. Believers can still hope for their own scenarios, but the disappointment could turn out to be painful.
So I advise everyone to hope for the last option. If for some reason you wish to stay the way you are right now - no big deal, you can't drag someone into the future by force. The supercivilization will most likely gaze upon its ancestors with nostalgia and sentimentality, and protect the few remaining specimens. Or might even forget about them entirely.